The Ghost Story Became a Forecast.

Thorsten Meyer analyzes Clark’s recent essay revealing a bivalent forecast for AI development, with significant implications for policy and research.

Saturation. The ten-essay framework, closed.

The ten-essay framework on European sovereign LLMs has been completed, marking a structural saturation point as of May 2026, with external events expected to shape next steps.

EuroHPC. The compute substrate.

An analysis of EuroHPC’s compute substrate, its current capabilities, and structural challenges for Europe’s AI ambitions amid new investments and projects.

Apertus. The architectural template.

Apertus, developed by Swiss research institutions, introduces a new model for European sovereign AI with open data, multilingual support, and compliance features.

Engineering Is Automated. Research Is the Residual.

Recent developments show AI can automate core engineering tasks, but research still relies on human creativity. What this means for AI progress and industry.

OpenEuroLLM. The third path.

European consortium OpenEuroLLM faces significant compute challenges as it aims to develop open-source multilingual LLMs, highlighting limits of pan-European AI efforts.

Minerva. The opposite path.

Italy’s Minerva-3B, trained from scratch on 2.5 trillion tokens, scores only 4.9% on Italian exams, raising questions about native-language investment needs.

The Forecast Is the Plan.

Major AI labs publicly commit to automating AI R&D by 2026, signaling a strategic shift toward automation as a core objective, with broad implications for the industry.

AMÁLIA · The Three Hard Questions.

Portugal’s €5.5M AMÁLIA LLM, launched in 2025, outperforms many models in Portuguese tasks but prompts key questions about openness, native data, and goals.

The Atlas. What the framework is.

The Post-Labor Transition Atlas is a new empirical framework analyzing AI-driven labor displacement, policy responses, and structural alternatives as of 2026.