Minerva. The opposite path.

Italy’s Minerva-3B, trained from scratch on 2.5 trillion tokens, scores only 4.9% on Italian exams, raising questions about native-language investment needs.

The Forecast Is the Plan.

Major AI labs publicly commit to automating AI R&D by 2026, signaling a strategic shift toward automation as a core objective, with broad implications for the industry.

AMÁLIA · The Three Hard Questions.

Portugal’s €5.5M AMÁLIA LLM, launched in 2025, outperforms many models in Portuguese tasks but prompts key questions about openness, native data, and goals.

The Atlas. What the framework is.

The Post-Labor Transition Atlas is a new empirical framework analyzing AI-driven labor displacement, policy responses, and structural alternatives as of 2026.

The Compounding Error Problem — Why 99.9% Alignment Decays to 60% in 500 Generations

Research shows that even 99.9% per-generation alignment accuracy drops to 60% after 500 generations, raising concerns over recursive self-improvement safety.

The Co-Founder’s Black Hole — A Structural Read on Jack Clark’s Automated AI R&D Essay

Jack Clark predicts over 60% chance that autonomous AI research systems could emerge by 2028, raising concerns about institutional readiness and future risks.

Every Benchmark Launched 2023-2024 Has Fallen — The METR / SWE-Bench / CORE-Bench / MLE-Bench / PostTrainBench Sequence

Every major AI research benchmark launched in 2023-2024 has now saturated or is nearing saturation, signaling advancements in AI capabilities.

Jack Clark Says It Out Loud — Reading the Co-Founder’s 60%/2028 Estimate on Automated AI R&D

Anthropic’s co-founder Jack Clark publicly estimates over 60% probability that autonomous AI systems capable of building their own successors will emerge by 2028.

The Continual Learning Research Map: Where the Memento Constraint Stands in May 2026

Six months after initial analysis, the research community confirms the Memento Constraint remains a key bottleneck in AI continual learning, with no current solution ready.

Two Channels: How the Pentagon Just Split Frontier-AI Procurement in Half

The Pentagon announced a split in its AI procurement strategy, placing Anthropic in a separate cybersecurity channel and not in the classified, redundant channel announced May 1, 2026.